UK supermarket sales growth slowed to 1.4% in the four weeks to 3 October 2026, compared with 1.8% in the previous period, according to figures released by NielsenIQ on Tuesday.
The latest Total Till figures show that shoppers remain cautious even as more people visit stores. Grocery unit sales rose just 0.1% year on year, while shopping trips increased 1.8%. Average spending per visit was broadly unchanged at £18.58.
The slowdown comes as major grocers prepare for the final quarter, when promotional activity and Christmas ranges typically become more important. For retailers and suppliers, the figures point to competition for a larger share of household spending rather than a broad rise in the volume of groceries sold.
September’s unusually warm weather also influenced demand. Mineral water sales increased 17.4%, soft drinks grew 12.9% and ice cream sales rose 11.7%. By contrast, hot chocolate sales fell 11% and ambient soup declined 5.4%. Branded fresh ready meals grew 16%, suggesting that convenience remained important even as overall spending was restrained.
Online grocery continued to outperform store sales. Online spending exceeded £2 billion during the latest four-week period, up 9.9% in value. Rapid delivery represented 10.5% of online grocery sales, and the number of customers using the service rose 21% year on year. NielsenIQ found that drinks account for a larger proportion of rapid-delivery orders than traditional online supermarket orders, illustrating the different purchasing occasions these services meet.
Among the supermarket groups, Tesco recorded sales growth of 1.9% over 12 weeks, while Morrisons grew 1.1%, ahead of Sainsbury’s at 0.7%. Lidl increased sales by 6.8%, while Asda declined 0.5% over the same period, although its latest four-week sales returned to growth. Ocado and Marks & Spencer grew 17.2% and 10.7% respectively.
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said the Indian summer had supported drinks and snacks but delayed a more typical shift into autumn shopping. He also pointed to continued household caution ahead of year-end spending.
For supermarkets, the next test will be whether half-term, seasonal product launches and festive promotions can encourage shoppers to increase basket values. NielsenIQ said growth could reach 2.5% at Christmas if retailers generate stronger demand.
Editor’s note: This report is based on NielsenIQ’s UK Total Till release dated 13 October 2026. NIQ changed aspects of its market-share methodology from this reporting period; current market-share estimates should not be directly compared with older series.
